Blog 170 - Marine Musings - India’s Energy Needs - A Futuristic Overview from a Marine Engineer’s Perspective

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Foreword

Wars decisively intrude into the peace of nation states and, consequently, into the peace of societies and individuals. Wars deny the free flow of goods and commodities, stretching the fragile fabrics that bind together a people, a culture, a civilisation.

Oil is one such commodity. The dependency on oil and its spin offs has escalated to the extent that governments have more or less sold themselves to the mindset of plunging ever deeper into oil debt, with far reaching consequences into every corner of everyday life. The result? Ever rising prices of even the most essential and basics of commodities - food, health care, medicines, transportation, shelter.

As our brain develops, so does the need to progress. Just a few days back, I was having a conversation with my 40+ years old son, where I was reminiscing about the difference in Cinema of the 1950s, compared to that of today. Visits to my village would, inevitably of an evening, lead to 20 odd family members trotting a mile to see a movie in a “kottaai” ( a large tent, more or less permanently occupying a tract of land). 

The seating would be - the children on the sand in front (closest to the screen) at 1 anna per person, a set of benches set midway in the “kottaai’ at 2 annas per person and a set of rickety wooden chairs at the top end of the auditorium at 4 annas per person.

(For the modern youth, 16 “annas” made a rupee.)

The highlight for us youngsters used to be the interval, where we were each given 2 ‘dhamdi’ worth of roasted peanuts in conical newspaper containers, the quantity coming to nearly the same as a half box of today’s popcorn..

(12 ‘dhamdis’ = 1 anna) .

From a different perspective, contrast the above movie to one I saw in an Imax theatre in Bangalore. Ticket price Rs 1500. One medium sized basket of buttered popcorn Rs 300.

The time span? 70 years.

So, what has changed? From the sand pits of the ‘50s with a cool evening breeze blowing across the ‘kottaai’, the manual changing of reels of the movie on to the projector, the scenes from the projector displaying themselves on a large, white piece of cloth - which showed the contours of anybody walking behind the screen - the sound coming from a single speaker placed at the back of the ‘kottaai’, with cables from the projector to the speaker and - through the years - leading to the multiplex, air conditioned, push back seats of today, with the digitally enhanced display, the surround sound and virtual moving effects in line with the particular scene being played out, projected on to a very large screen.

So, what has changed in transportation? The method of delivery of one passenger or a ton of goods has changed. If you were to envision a holiday travel of a family from a small town to a village 5 ~ 6 decades ago, it happened thus. Envisaging a distance of 250 km, an irregular bus took you from close to your home to the railway station, then a train ride to the closest station to your village, then a rickety bus (mostly a ‘Bedford’) to the village bus stand, followed by a horse drawn cart - called a ‘jhatka’ in the south, a tanga in the north, to finally reach your destination.

Over the decades, the configuration of the mode of transport from one’s home to your grandparent’s house in the village has not changed, except that motorised rickshaws have taken the place of the horse drawn or hand drawn rickshaw. But the dynamics have changed. Buses have become more frequent, more reliable, more comfortable. A very slow attempt is being made to put electric buses into service. Taxis - point to point - are now available at the press of a button on the smart phone in Tier One cities, petrol or diesel driven vehicles having partly given way to LNG consuming taxis, which are being further upgraded to Electrical Vehicles, EV for short. More EV autorickshaws have also entered the market and are already on the roads. Trains have become more punctual. Steam driven engines - with coal fired boilers - have rapidly been overtaken by electrified trains, the latest being the inception of green hydrogen trains.

The mode of carriage of goods has changed. What was delivered at speeds of 4 km/hr, has now reached dizzying speeds, with trucks carrying goods at 100 km / hr, trains reaching 300 km / hr and planes at 700 km / hr. And, if you want to put a satellite into orbit, you do it at speeds of 28,000 km / hr. One has a wide variety of choices.

Travel included buses using diesel fuel, trains using coal for their boilers, horses or human hand drawn rickshaws for the last mile.

Since the 1960s, this has changed to an all-oil-used mode of transport. Further refinements to this has included, in the last decade, use of electrical vehicles and trains that run long distances using electricity. The use of coal engines has now been confined to small pockets, at railway station sidings, hill resorts.  Transport is one of the essential commodities that has seen a phenomenal growth, with ever increasing speeds and factors of safety.

This is seen more so in the railways. Electrification of tracks, modernising the underfoot tracks, improving on the factors of safety, computerising the flow of traffic and 2x to 3x increase in speeds has led to shorter periods on board, with amenities keeping pace. Fast running trains between stations has changed the demographic dynamics of commerce, industry, employment. A farmer or a manufacturer does need need to rely only on sales close to his site, within a restricted radius, and can target areas far away from his station. With housing costs and rentals going through the roof in the cities, an office or a factory worker can now stay in a town less crowded, cheaper and still commute to his workplace in less than 30 minutes.

The recent addition of superfast freight corridors has led to expansion of commerce never seen before. Goods that travelled by road are slowly shifting to trains, the 2 two tiered container carriers being the most recent. It is now upto the manufacturer - of produce, of products - to take advantage of these developments, as his radius of marketing his produce has increased manifold. This includes quick-to-spoil farm produces, be they vegetables, fruits, dairy products or meats, due to the use of refrigerated containers. Roads and highways have also kept pace, keeping the business of  transport of commodities solvent, although it is a losing race in the long distance sector, because the cost of movement of a ton of freight by train has reduced drastically, in comparison to road transport.

What has changed on the domestic front? From mud and clay moulded wood burning hearths to coal fired furnaces and cooking mediums to petroleum based kerosene stoves to gas stoves to electrical devices, there has been the whole gamut of change in the domestic circuit. In the kitchen, we are presently at a stage where the majority of cooking is done using LPG Gas, with electrical supplementary devices. The days of firewood and coal have been displaced. Were electricity prices per KwH to reduce, there will be a trend towards all-electric kitchens. Presently, the cheapest method is still through using LPG, although the price of gas has been rising steadily.

The industrial revolution in Europe and America brought in steam power, using coal. The discovery of vast subterranean lakes of oil gave those countries with oil in their territories a distinct advantage. Those countries with the necessary cash flow - and which were without oil - bought up the oil and kept driving up the price of oil. The less developed nations were put to the heel in trying to cope.

Energy has become the watchword, energy in any form. But there are roadblocks from regulations defending the environment. Coal was the net provider of energy all over the world in the 19th and most of the 20th century. It remains so amongst the developing nations, as they are unable to purchase oil, the next net provider of energy.

In terms of environmental protection, Europe has set the benchmark, reducing their dependency on coal - except in some pockets of Europe that were part of the erstwhile Soviet Union - and expanding their dependency on nuclear power, natural gas. 

In the global rat race, energy is power, whether political or electrified and is the bioscope of progress, as well as the recognition of the might of a nation and its ability and capacity to advance in every sphere. Progress is power and power for progress - the catch words.

Coal dominated as the fuel for power for a very long time, with more or less each country finding reserves of coal, some finding good grades of coal with high calorific value, some finding lower grades of coal. Coal burnt in a boiler furnace produced steam to drive turbines that, connected to generators, produce power.

Profuse use of coal produced its own problems. The environment quality was affected and use of coal needed to be restricted.

Surprisingly, although researchers had started warning the world of green house gases and carbon (dioxide) increase in the environment, even the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 and the Paris Agreement of 2015 only started setting targets to be achieved, with no specific notation on the reduction of coal use. 

This - the slow progress in implementing standards for green house gases, emissions etc - is in sharp contrast to how the world reacted when warned of the ozone hole appearing in the stratosphere. The world, as one, reacted legislated and implemented the reduction in the use of CFCs, the main cause of the ozone hole. At its widest in the year 2000, the size of the hole is expected to revert to pre war levels by 2066.

As is well known, the United States has refused to sign any protocols regarding the reduction of coal use. Roughly 15% of the power produced in the US is through coal fired plants. Recently - since 2000 - there has been a sharp fall of coal use, from almost 50% of its power coming from coal based power plants. Natural gas is the prime mover nowadays.

Main Power source (USA)

Petroleum ~37% of total energy use, driving the transportation sector.

Natural Gas: ~36% of total energy use, utilized for heating, industry, and power generation.

Coal: ~9% to 10% of total energy use, largely for electricity generation.

Nuclear Energy: ~9% of total energy consumption.

Renewable Energy: ~9% of total consumption, encompassing wind, solar, hydroelectric, biomass, and geothermal.

Europe’s dependence on coal fell by the year 1990, as they wished to abide by the laws more or less set by themselves. The transformation to the use of natural gas and, in some cases, nuclear power reduced their carbon foot print.

Main Power Sources (Europe)

• crude oil and petroleum products (38%)

• natural gas (21%)

• renewable energy (20%)

• nuclear energy (12%)

• solid fuels (10%)

Although the Europen average of production and use of nuclear power is just 12%, France’s percentage is in the region of 70%, the largest in the world.

India has a long way to go in reduction of coal usage - and the consequent carbon emissions - as they receive nearly 75% of their total power from coal burning sources. Although it will be at the sacrifice of millions of mine workers, there will be no alternative.

Main Power Sources (India)

• Coal: Provides about 70% of the total electricity generation.

• Solar Energy: Generates about 9% to 9.4% of the electricity.

• Hydropower: Contributes 9% to 12% of the power supply.

• Wind Power: Contributes around 6% of the electricity.

• Nuclear Energy: Supplies close to 3% of the power mix.

• Oil, Gas, and Biofuels: Make up the remaining 2% to 4%.

AR